Game Week 13: Key Matchups

West Ham vs Arsenal:

 

West Ham come into this matchup riding high after a surprise victory against Newcastle on Monday night. Can the Hammers maintain any consistency or was it just a fluke result?

Meanwhile Arsenal feel like they might be back to some semblance of their best self, after impressive back-to-back wins against Forest in the league and Sporting in the Champions League. They managed to score 8 goals and concede only 1 in those two games and the confidence is high with a healthy squad once again.

Jurien Timber (£5.5m – DEF):

 

Timber is looking at home at right-back for Arsenal in Ben White’s absence. He has been electric in his natural position in Arsenal’s last two games. The Dutchman scored a goal against Forest last weekend that was eventually ruled out. He then followed that up in the Champions League by sliding a lovely ball across goal for Martinelli – a high xG chance created for an easy goal and Timber assist.

At £5.5m, he is the cheapest option out of Arsenal’s starting Defenders, and they have looked much stronger as a defensive unit over the last two games, conceding only 1.38xG combined against Nottingham Forest and Sporting Lisbon. In a matchup against a West Ham side that has been poor all season, and weren’t noticeably better against Newcastle despite the win, Timber is a must-start. The Hammers are still missing Kudus through suspension, and only created 0.81xG in their win against Newcastle, and have conceded the 6^th most xG themselves. Timber’s ceiling outcome is high in Gameweek 13.

If Arsenal can truly get back to their defensive levels from the previous two seasons, and Timber continues to provide the attacking output he has recently, at 2% ownership, he could be the best differential Defender and potentially best overall differential player in FPL.

Jared Bowen (£7.4m – MID):

 

Bowen has been West Ham’s rock in attack this season, as he always is. He is the teams top goal scorer, with 3, and assist leader, with 4 this season. His complete skillset makes him such a reliable FPL asset, as he is a threat to score with his great movement and finishing ability or to get an assist through his high-level playmaking skills. His 3 goals from 2.1 xG display his clinical finishing ability, and those playmaking skills highlighted by Bowen having the 9^th highest xA total this season, tied with Cole Palmer and ahead of players like Salah, Fernandes and Kulusevski. With Kudus returning in Gameweek 14, hopefully he can raise the level of West Ham’s attack and give Bowen someone who can create chances for him and finish the chances he creates with higher efficiency.

In Gameweek 13, facing an Arsenal defence that is now mostly healthy, and has looked stingier of late as we discussed, it is not an ideal matchup. Fantasy managers may have superior midfield options to start this week, but Bowen is definitely a hold, with great fixtures against Leicester, Wolves, Bournemouth, Brighton and Southampton from Gameweek 14-18. He will be a must-start in these fixtures and at only 5.9% ownership could be a great differential selection for FPL managers looking for alternatives to players like Mbeumo (£7.9m), Foden (£9.1m) or Johnson (£6.7m) over the next stretch of games.

Martin Odegaard (£8.2m – MID):

 

Since Odegaard’s return to the starting XI after injury, Arsenal have looked like a different team, especially from an attacking standpoint, having scored 8 goals in their last two games.

The Arsenal captain has provided 2 assists in his 2 Premier League games since returning, immediately displaying his immense value to his team. Odegaard’s per 90 numbers are very impressive: his xG per 90 is 88^th percentile for Premier League midfielders and his 0.24xA per 90 is 15^th of all players who qualify for enough minutes played. He is also a key set piece taker for Arsenal along with Saka and Rice, which provides added value.

In a matchup against one of the league’s worst defences, that just conceded 1.7xG to Newcastle and were lucky to get away with it, Odegaard has a high ceiling outcome. Arsenal beat this West Ham team 6-0 at the London Stadium last season and have just played well enough to put 5 past Sporting Lisbon who are a much better defensive side than West Ham. Odegaard is a great option in Gameweek 13, and with fixtures against Everton, Palace, Ipswich, Brentford and Brighton from Gameweek 16-20, FPL managers who own the Norwegian could have some weeks that help them climb the rankings significantly.

 

Spurs vs Fulham

 

Spurs are a rollercoaster ride this season, and no one knows where the next turn will take us. A loss to Ipswich at home prior to the international break followed up by a historic 4-0 thrashing of Man City at the Etihad sums them up.

Fulham were riding high off back-to-back wins prior to losing 1-4 to Wolves last week and have been a quality side overall this season. They are a well drilled team by a good coach and have quality attacking players. This should be one of the more entertaining games of the weekend with plenty of key FPL assets.

James Maddison (£7.6m – MID):

 

Maddison is coming off maybe his best performance of the season last week in the win against Man City. He scored a brace with a ghosting run into the box for his first, and finishing with a lovely chip over Ederson for his second. Ange made a key tweak to his starting lineup, moving Kulusevski to right-wing, bringing Bissouma in to partner Sarr deeper with Maddison free to roam.

That is an ideal outcome for Maddison’s output in terms of goals and assists. He is so dynamic when given freedom and a platform to affect the game in the final third. Even with slightly more defensive responsibilities earlier in the season, he is still leading the entire Premier League with 3.7 xA, tied with Saka. He has also registered 3.2xG, which is more than some of the highest-owned players in FPL such as Saka, Diaz and Cunha, while Maddison is at a lowly 7.5% ownership. He’s scored 5 goals from that 3.2xG, showing how deadly he can be in front of goal.

Fulham have been one of the better defensive teams in the league this season, having conceded the 4^th least xG, so this is a tough matchup in Gameweek 13. However in the role that Maddison is in, playing for the team that have created the 2^nd most xG this season and 4^th most big chances, he might be matchup proof. He is a must-start in Gameweek 13. After Fulham, Maddison has some enticing fixtures against lesser defences facing Bournemouth, Chelsea and Southampton, and he could prove to be someone fantasy managers regret not having in their teams.

Alex Iwobi (£5.6m – MID):

 

Iwobi is arguably having a career season and has a case for being Fulham’s most important player this season. The Nigerian provides fantasy managers with an asset that is at the heart of every Fulham attack, and Iwobi is the kind of player who can legitimately provide a goal or an assist in any Gameweek.

The Premier League veteran has scored 3 goals from only 1.29 xG, putting on full display his efficient finishing skills, exemplified by curling in a left footed effort into the top corner from 20 yards out last weekend against Wolves. His impressive finishing might be secondary his elite level playmaking this season, with Iwobi producing 2.9xA, the 5^th best mark in the league. He has also created 5 big chances, more than key FPL assets such as Maddison, Mitoma and Diaz.

A player in as fine form as Iwobi is, playing in a team that have created more xG than Brighton and Newcastle and essentially the same total as Arsenal, with a price tag of only £5.6m, is about as good of a bargain that can provide managers with consistent points returns, as you will find in FPL. In a matchup against a solid but not formidable Spurs defence that have conceded the 6^th least xG, but are without Van De Ven and potentially also Romero, is not one to shy away from.

He is a must-start in Gameweek 13 against Spurs, and that’s followed up by a favourable matchup against Brighton next week. From Gameweek 17-22, Fulham’s fixture list looks very favourable, and Iwobi could prove to be the best budget option in FPL through that period – FPL managers will want to find a way to get him into their lineups to reap the rewards.

 

Liverpool vs Man City

 

Liverpool are arguably the best team in Europe, top of the Premier League and top of the Champions League tables, bouncing in after a 2-0 win over Real Madrid Wednesday. And now they face a Man City team breaking the wrong kinds of records, struggling like no Guardiola side we have ever seen. City enter this matchup at Anfield after a thrashing at the hands of Spurs and letting a 3-0 lead slip entirely away against Feyenoord on Tuesday. This is the pivotal game in the title race so far and features so many key pivotal FPL assets in Gameweek 13. Since owning City assets outside of Haaland is not particularly appealing to fantasy managers, let’s look at the pros and cons of owning Trent vs other premium Defenders.

Trent Alexander-Arnold (£6.9m – DEF):

 

Arne Slot has confirmed that Trent is fit to start this Sunday against Man City, meaning he likely will. Trent, despite essentially missing Liverpool’s last two games, leads all Defenders in xGI with 3.3, not too far off doubling players like Gvardiol and Ait-Nouri’s totals. England’s superstar right back starts for the best defensive side in the league – Liverpool have conceded the least xG in the Premier League.

If you combine the potential for points returns via clean sheets, with potential attacking returns that he is more likely to give fantasy managers than any other Defender, and it is hard to argue against owning Alexander-Arnold regardless of fixtures.

The risk is always going to be Trent’s price tag, and the chance you can get equal or greater point totals over certain periods with cheaper players. However, betting against Trent starting to produce attacking returns alongside league leading clean sheet production is a dangerous gamble.

Man City are a difficult opponent to discuss, but if Spurs can keep a clean sheet against this City side last weekend, Liverpool certainly can in Gameweek 13. Also having scored in this fixture last season, Alexander-Arnold is a must-start. Liverpool’s fixture list really becomes enticing for their defensive assets from Gameweek 17 onwards.

To see who we rank as the top Defenders to own, compared to Trent, over the coming weeks, make sure to visit our Transfer Wizard here and have a play.

Written by Ahsan Ejaz – for more from him, click here