Game Week 15: Key Matchups

Fulham vs Arsenal

Fulham have only suffered one defeat in their last 5 Premier League games and look to be a true contender for European football next season after beating Brighton 3-1 on Thursday. They now face one of their tougher tests of the season.

Arsenal have found themselves again and now look like the side that most thought they would be prior to the season. The Gunners have scored 15 goals in their last 4 games while only conceding 3 and will look to cement themselves as Liverpool’s closest rivals for the title.

Gabriel Magalhaes (£6.2m – DEF):

 

Arsenal are back, and that means clean sheets are in play and they look dominant from set pieces once again. There is one man that benefits most from that where FPL is concerned, and that is Gabriel. He is nearly impossible to stop from getting his head on the ball first from Arsenal’s choreographed set pieces, scoring the opener against West Ham on Saturday. His 1.71xG this season is more than attacking players like Iwobi and Kulusevski – the Brazilian is a unique goal threat for a Defender. He poses as high a chance for an attacking return as any Defender outside of Alexander-Arnold.

Arsenal’s defensive solidity looks restored, with the new settled starting back four all fit and performing well. While they did concede twice last weekend, players aren’t going to score 30-yard worldie free kicks every week as Emerson did. The Gunners have kept 2 clean sheets out of their last 3 Premier League games including completely nullifying Man United’s attack on Wednesday. Arsenal held United to only 0.22xG midweek, which is a supremely impressive defensive performance against a team that scored four in their previous game, and now have conceded the 2nd least xG in the Premier League behind only Liverpool. Odegaard coming back has been huge for Arsenal’s pressing, and ability to create and sustain attacks, all of which helps Arsenal’s defence. Arsenal’s recent improved defensive performance is more trend than fluke.

Gabriel is a must-start in Gameweek 15 facing a Fulham side that is only 11^th in xG and big chances created. With upcoming fixtures against Everton, Crystal Palace, Ipswich and Brentford from Gameweek 16 onwards, while being cheaper than Trent and Van Dijk, he may be the best premium Defender for FPL managers to own over the next stretch of games.

Raul Jimenez (£5.6m – FWD):

 

Raul Jimenez has blanked in three consecutive games, which will have his owners frustrated. Many may be looking to transfer him out for other Forwards in a similar price range, but the best move may be to hold him, as the Mexican striker is still putting up the elite underlying numbers that made him an attractive FPL asset at the start of the season. In his last two starts, against Spurs and Wolves, Raul put up a combined xGI of 1.72 which is an elite number. The Fulham striker was unfortunate not to convert those performances into FPL returns for managers that owned him, narrowly missing out on getting on the scoresheet when he hit the crossbar from close range as well as some great saves from opposition goal keepers.

Despite not playing as many minutes as some of his counterparts, Raul is still 14^th out of all Premier League players for xG with 4.9xG, and combines that with 1.3xA, trailing only two Forwards – Cunha and Joao Pedro – in that category. The combination of high-quality chances and finishing, along with top level chance creation for a striker, would suggest his recent blanks are just variance and bad luck. This is the profile of player we should prioritise having in our teams in FPL.

What makes Raul an even more attractive asset in FPL is the high-level performance of his front-line teammates in Iwobi and Smith Rowe, who will continue to create chances and spearhead attacks for Jimenez to finish.

It is a tough matchup for Fulham and Raul in Gameweek 15, facing one of the two best defences in the league, and so fantasy managers may have superior options for this Gameweek. However, from Gameweek 17-22 Raul and Fulham have some very appealing fixtures against Southampton, Chelsea, Ipswich, West Ham and Leicester, and the underlying numbers would indicate this could be a period of the season where Raul’s production explodes. He could prove to be a great differential asset at only 5.5% ownership and priced at £5.6m, and it is highly likely that managers who hold him through the Arsenal and Liverpool games will be rewarded for their patience.

Man United vs Nottingham Forest

Man United have had an inconsistent beginning under Amorim, but you can already see that his ideas are being taught and implemented better than Ten Haag ever did. The Red Devils are looking to get a victory that would take them level on points with their opponents, in a chase for European football next season.

Forest enter this game amid their toughest stretch of form and results this season, with three losses in their last four league games, and will look to bounce back and separate from the pack of teams that make up 5^th to 13^th in the league that are only separated by 4 total points.

Marcus Rashford (£6.9m – MID):

 

It has been a rough couple of years for Rashford on the pitch. His form had completely cratered and he looked more likely to leave United than find himself again at his boyhood club. Ruben Amorim might have different ideas, however. Everyone was wondering who would play in various positions in his 5-2-3 formation, namely striker. The answer so far has been Marcus Rashford, who has scored 3 goals from 0.7xG in 2 Premier League starts under Amorim. While Hojlund did start against Arsenal, this was likely more about rotation, and Hojlund did little to threaten Rashford’s place in Amorim’s preferred starting XI, with United looking toothless. We would expect Rashford to re-enter the starting XI against Forest.

Rashford looks more assured and confident. And the formation is suiting him, allowing him the freedom to drift right and left linking up with Fernandes and Zirkzee or the wing-backs, and making runs in behind that the two 10’s and wing-backs are searching out. A confident and fit Rashford is someone we have seen be one of the best forwards in the league, and there is a chance that player is revived under United’s new coach.

Rashford is a good option to start in Gameweek 15 against a Forest side that has struggled over the last month, losing three of their last four and conceding 3 goals per game in those losses. Looking ahead, from Gameweek 16-20, Rashford has some favourable fixtures against a Man City team that cannot handle pace and direct football, followed by Bournemouth, Wolves and Newcastle. At 4.4% ownership, if Rashford continues to be Amorim’s preferred starting striker and produce this kind of output, he is a player FPL managers will have to consider owning.

Diogo Dalot (£5.2m – DEF):

 

Dalot is having a wonderful season, having arguably been United’s most consistent performer this season and looks to be a key part of Amorim’s plans. Amorim spoke on hoping to be able to move Dalot to his favoured right-hand side, and he did just that against Arsenal, playing right wing back. The wing-back role in Amorim’s system has the potential to provide so much value, as they are an attacking outlet as well as the obvious defensive responsibilities.

Dalot has created 1.2xA this season, which ranks in the 78^th percentile for Premier League full-backs and he will be expected to bomb up the touchline, and to deliver crosses and cutbacks to United’s forward line. Combine this, with United hopefully beginning to improve as a defensive unit under Amorim not only out of possession, and we have a Defender with a high FPL ceiling. We can already see United’s out of possession structure and off ball work is greatly improved under Amorim in just a few games, and if their performance in possession improves, they will naturally face less attacks and less shots. There could be a on-pitch structure being built by Amorim that makes Dalot a high-quality FPL asset with a high ceiling.

While Forest are having a great season, as an attacking side they are reliant on teams leaving space in behind for them to counter-attack in to. This plan has not gone as well recently as it did in the early season. Through 14 games, Forest now sit a lowly 15^th in xG and have only scored 2 goals in their last 4 league games, and therefore this is a great matchup to start Dalot in. He is a must-start in Gameweek 15, and certainly someone whose role and performances should be monitored as we learn more about Amorim’s United side. He may end up being the asset to own on the Manchester United defence.

Written by Ahsan Ejaz – click here for more Ahsan

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